[  This is a personal non-profit online research library and is solely used by Scott Bryan Hill.  Some of the links on this page lead to outside resources and the presence of these links should not be taken as an endorsement.  ]

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( Symbol Guide )

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Beating the Market Isn't Easy -- Any Way, Mark Hulbert, Barron’s, March 11, 2006.  “The huge growth in the popularity of hedge funds over the past several years, coupled with the subsequent mediocre performance of many of them, has taught us all many valuable lessons about investing.  But there's one lesson that I think needs to be drawn that really hasn't been: The disappointing performance of many hedge funds shows that stock picking is no easier to do successfully than is market timing.”  (Market Timing (Security Selection) |  Hedge Funds | Newsletters))  Seminars

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How Long Does The Typical Investor Hold On To A Stock?, Mark Hulbert, CBS MarketWatch (Yahoo), July 6, 2005.  “Where have all the long-term investors gone?  That's what Richard Band, editor of the Profitable Investing newsletter, asked in a recent issue.   And it's an important question, given the picture painted by the latest turnover data from the New York Stock Exchange: The average holding period for an NYSE-listed stock is now around 11 months." (Market Timing)  Seminar

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In All Things Moderation, Including Market Timing, Mark Hulbert, The New York Times, July 29, 2007.  “When it comes to making asset allocation decisions in your portfolio, it is best not to be dogmatic. That is the conclusion of a new study, which found that investors are likely to do better over the long term by resisting the advice of those who take extreme positions about how much of their portfolios should be allocated among the various asset classes.  The new study, “Predictable Returns and Asset Allocation: Should a Skeptical Investor Time the Market?,” recently began circulating in academic circles as a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper.”  (Money Management (Market Timing))

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Marketing Timing: A Perilous Ploy, Jeffrey M. Laderman, BusinessWeek, March 9, 1998.  "The idea of marrying mutual-fund investing with market timing has innate appeal.  With a phone call--or a few keystrokes at a Web site--you switch your money into equities when the stock market's going to rise and take it out before stocks go down.  Who, after all, wouldn't want to ride the bull and dodge the bear?." (Marketing Timing | Newsletter Market Timing)  Seminar

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Peer Pressure Keeps the Pros Gambling, Bill Fleckenstein, MSN Money, June 23, 2003.  “Worried about missing the rally? Worry instead about the money managers who risk your savings to keep up with the pack."  (Marketing Timing | Behavior Finance)

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Some People Pick the Stock.  Others Choose the Moment, Conrad De Aenlle, The New York Times, July 3, 2005.  “Timing is everything. Or is it?  Fortunes have been made on the ability to recognize or even anticipate big swings in the stock market. But a knack for picking the right stocks and holding on through thick and thin has also proved valuable - and seems to require fewer grand, all-or-nothing decisions. So is it sensible for ordinary investors to try to predict a market top or bottom?  Whether professional investors place much faith in timing the market is closely aligned with how they earn a living. Fund managers, who are paid to pick stocks, tend to put little store in timing, while market strategists and editors of advisory newsletters are more likely to adhere to it." (Market Timing)  Seminar

Stock Market Extremes and Portfolio Performance, A study commissioned by Towneley Capital Management and conducted by Professor H. Nejat Seyhun, University of Michigan, 1994.  "Professor Seyhun studied stock market returns and risk for all months from 1926 through 1993, and for all trading days from 1963 through 1993. His findings highlight the challenge of market timing, since a small number of months or days accounted for a large percentage of market gains and losses."  (Market Timing (Missing the Best and Worst Months - 1926-1993))

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When Market Timers Target Funds, Amy Stone, BusinessWeek,  December 11, 2002.  “Thanks to “stale” prices of underlying stocks, traders can swoop in and out of mutual funds, profiting at long-term investors expense.”  (Money Management | Governance)

Who Gains from Trade? Evidence from Taiwan, Brad M. Barber (Graduate School of Management University of California), DavisYi-Tsung Lee (Department of Accounting National Chengchi University Taipei), TaiwanYu-Jane Liu (Department of Finance National Chengchi University Taipei), TaiwanTerrance Odean (Haas School of Business University of California, Berkeley),  July 2004.  “Poker is a zero-sum game. Players ante up. Some take home more than they bring to the table, others less. However, the sum of winnings from the game is zero." (Market Timing (Trading))

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