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Macroeconomic Index by Title

A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z

( Symbol Guide )

 [ A ]

A Global Balancing Act, Louis Uchitelle, The New York Times, January 30, 2006.  “As a practical matter, he says, Washington must counteract the damage from America’s trade policies more than it has in the past. It is a message that is resonating not just with populists in both parties, who have long been skeptical of the benefits of globalization, but increasingly with mainstream policy thinkers, many of them associated with former President Bill Clinton.” (Macroeconomics (Trade Policy))

 A Guide to the NIPA (National Income Product Accounts), 1929-1997,  "In this two-volume publication, the Bureau of Economic Analysis presents revised estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPA’s) for 1929–97 that reflect the most recent comprehensive revision of the NIPA’s and the 2000 annual NIPA revision.1 Estimates for 1998 forward that reflect the 2001 annual revision released in July 2001 are available in the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS and on BEA’s Website.  (Macroeconomics  | NIPA)

  A Note on the Impact of Hedonics and Computers on Real GDP, J. Steven Landefeld and Bruce T. Grimm, Survey of Current Business, December 2000.  "There has been recent speculation about the impact of the use of hedonic price indexes in the measurement of real computer hardware and software expenditures in the U.S. national income and product accounts (NIPA’s) and on the extent to which their use may be responsible both for the pickup in real gross domestic product (GDP) and productivity growth and for the continued low rate of measured inflation in the United States since 1995."  (Macroeconomics (Inflation - Hedonics) | Market History)  How The Government Manufactures Low Inflation  Seminars

An Inflation Debate Brews Over Intangibles at the Mall, Timothy Aeppel, The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2005.  “To most people, when the price of a 27-inch television set remains $329.99 from one month to the next, the price hasn't changed.  But not to Tim LaFleur. He's a commodity specialist for televisions at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the government agency that assembles the Consumer Price Index. In this case, which landed on his desk last December, he decided the newer set had important improvements, including a better screen. After running the changes through a complex government computer model, he determined that the improvement in the screen was valued at more than $135. Factoring that in, he concluded the price of the TV had actually fallen 29%.  Mr. LaFleur was applying the principles of hedonics, an arcane statistical technique that's become a flashpoint in a debate over how the U.S. government measures inflation. Hedonics is essentially a way of accounting for the changing quality of products when calculating price movements. That's vital in the dynamic U.S. economy, marked by rapid technological advances. Without hedonics, the effect of consumers getting more for their money wouldn't get fully reflected in inflation numbers."  (Macroeconomics (Inflation - Hedonics) | Market History)  Seminar

Asset Prices, Financial and Monetary Stability: Exploring the Nexus, Claudio Borio and Philip Lowe, Bank for International Settlements, July 2002.  “This paper argues that financial imbalances can build up in a low inflation environment and that in some circumstances it is appropriate for policy to respond to contain these imbalances.”  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ B ]

 [ C ]

Case for Credit, Robert Marks, Barron’s, August 9, 2004.  “It’s time to overhaul traditional monetary theory. Generations of economists have told us that the Fed controls the monetary base and, through it, the money supply. In theory, the Fed buys (or sells) government securities in order to increase (or decrease) bank reserves. Banks then make (or reduce) loans in a multiple amount of the change in reserves, and the deposited proceeds (or withdrawals) of those loans expand (or contract) the money supply.  Because of far-reaching institutional changes, financial innovations, and altered savings habits, however, theory and reality have differed for decades. Since 1963, for example, the Fed's holdings of government securities rocketed from $34 billion to $687 billion, while bank reserves -- which should have increased by a similar amount -- rose from $21 billion to only $46 billion (see rows 1 and 2 in the table). And reserves have declined by $18 billion during the last 16 years, despite the Fed's purchases of $449 billion of Treasury securities."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Comparing Symptoms:  The Risk of Deflation, The Economist, November 7, 2002.  “Most policymakers in America and Europe blame Japan's slump on mistakes—which they can avoid. An alternative view is that much of Japan's economic sickness is the inevitable after-effect of its bubble in the 1980s. Asset-price bubbles tend to be followed by periods of weak growth, as financial excesses are unwound. The table attempts, in unscientific fashion, to assess the risks of America and Germany catching the Japanese disease.”  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Cultural and Spiritual Legacy of Fiat Inflation, J.G. Hülsmann, Mises Online, July 28, 2004.  “The notion that inflation is harmful is a staple of economic science. But most textbooks underrate the extent of the harm, because they define inflation much too narrowly as a lasting decrease of the purchasing power of money (PPM), and also because they pay scant attention to the concrete forms of inflation. To appreciate the disruptive nature of inflation in its full extent we must keep in mind that it springs from a violation of the fundamental rules of society."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ D ]

Dealing With Deflation, Hal R. Varian, The New York Times, June 5, 2003.  "People like low prices. So why is Alan Greenspan worried about deflation? Cheap is good . . . isn't it?  Yes, cheap is good. Deflation itself isn't necessarily bad; what matters is what causes the deflation.  Deflation is a symptom, not a disease. Just as a rosy complexion can be a sign of health or of a fever, deflation can be a sign of underlying economic strength or weakness.  Falling prices can arise from too much supply or too little demand. Having too much supply can often be a good thing, while having too little demand is almost always bad.  To understand the difference, it is helpful to look at two major periods of deflation: the post-Civil War deflation, which lasted 30 years or so, and the first three years of the Depression." (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Deflation Boogeyman, Robert J. Samuelson, The Washington Post, May 14, 2003.  “The probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level.  -- Statement of the Federal  Open Market Committee, May 6.  Well, we face a new danger: deflation. So says the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Federal Reserve's main policymaking body. It's astonishing what a few words can do, and these words riveted attention on something that, until recently, seemed a historical curiosity. Deflation signifies a general decline of prices; it hasn't happened in the United States since the Great Depression. Although the FOMC didn't mention "deflation," legions of Fed watchers concluded that it meant deflation -- and that it's mighty worried.”  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Deflation, Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options, Approved by Kenneth Rogoff, International Monetary Fund, April 30, 2003.  “This section discusses issues related to the measurement, determinants and costs of deflation.  An evaluation is undertaken of deflation in the 19th Century and during the Great Depression, along with the recent experience of Japan and China." (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here, Ben S. Bernanke, The United States Federal Reserve, November 21, 2002.  “Since World War, inflation –the apparently inexorable rise in the prices of goods and service – has been the bane of central bankers.”  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Deflation? Not Here, Sandra Ward, Barron's, June 2, 2003.  "Dollar's slide is far from over, says forecaster, and don't fret over consumer debt, idle capacity.  An Interview With Martin Barnes -- With so many crosscurrents sending conflicting signals, we turned to a longtime FOB -- friend of Barron's, that is -- for a better read on the course of the economy. As managing editor of the Montreal-based Bank Credit Analyst, a newsletter forecasting investment and business trends published by BCA Research, Barnes has distinguished himself for his probing and bold analysis and clear, yet contrary, thinking. He also has a nice way with words. While not exactly dour, the Scotsman is concerned about the dollar, less so about deflation." (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Deflation Wouldn't Be Terrible For Stock Market, if It's Slight, Ken Brown, The Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2003.  "The specter of deflation makes investors quiver under the blankets, but like many things that go bump in the night, deflation isn't necessarily as scary as it seems in those creepy predawn hours.  Historically, the stock market has performed best when inflation is close to zero. In other words, it doesn't matter much whether prices are rising or falling, as long as they do so only slightly. So if inflation crosses into slightly negative territory, don't expect to see ruined stockbrokers out on the streets selling apples." (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Digital Dilemmas, The Economist, January 23, 2003.  "Despite the dotcom boom and bust, the computer and telecommunications revolution has barely begun. Over the next few decades, the internet and related technologies really will profoundly transform society, argues David Manasian”   (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Dollar's Long Dive, Thomas G. Donlan, Barron’s, October 24, 2005.  “The idea that one picture can be worth even a small fraction of a thousand words is alien to a writer's mind. But we were partially convinced recently when we happened upon the chart below that takes up the space for several hundred words normally found on this page.  The dollar has almost evaporated as a store of value. We see it here as the flip side of inflation. In this view, prices don't rise, the dollar falls. Either way, the lesson is the same: Put not your faith in princes, even during the reigns of monetary royalists like Alan Greenspan. Paper money is first and foremost paper."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ E ]

Economic Dreamland, Robert J. Samuelson, The Washington Post, January 9^th, 2002.  “If you don’t understand the boom, why would you better understand the bust?  No obvious reason.”  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Economists Try to Explain Why Bubbles Happen, Alan B. Krueger, The New York Times, April 28, 2005.  “Jonathon Swift is credited with affixing the label "bubble" to a stock price that far exceeded its economic value in a poem written in December 1720, just after the stock price of the South Sea Company tumbled. The last stanza read: "The Nation too, too late will find/ Computing all their Cost and Trouble/ Directors Promises but Wind/ South Sea at best a mighty Bubble."  Perhaps it is a tad late, but economists are rediscovering bubbles." (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Explaining Japan’s Recession, Benjamin Powell, The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Vol. 5, NO. 2 (SUMMER 2002): 35–50.  “After decades of “miracle” economic growth since World War II, Japan’s economy abruptly faltered in 1990 and has stagnated since. I examine the Japanese government’s antirecession policies, most of which can be classified generally as either Keynesian or monetarist.” (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ F ]

Forty-Four Trillion Abyss, Anna Bernaseck, Fortune, November 10, 2003.  "Last fall Paul O'Neill, then Secretary of the Treasury, wanted a simple answer to a thorny question: How prepared was the nation today to pay all its future bills? Two government experts worked for months to calculate the answer. Their findings, which shocked even them, were never published—the Bush administration made sure of that. The reason for the silence was that by the time the two researchers had completed their study, O'Neill had been thrown out of the Treasury and replaced by the more politically astute John Snow. No savvy administration power player would dare point out, right in the middle of tax-cut season, that there was a huge hole in the country's finances—a $44 trillion hole."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ G ]

Global Implications Of The U.S. Fiscal Deficit And Of China’s Growth, Chapter II, The International Monetary Fund, 2004.  “This chapter consists of two essays: the first examines the global implications of the U.S. fiscal deficit, while the second analyzes the impact on the world economy of China’s emergence.  While China itself clearly stands to gain the most from its growth, the impact on the rest of the world as a whole will also be beneficial, although likely smaller than the impact of other regions."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ H ]

How Credit Got So Easy And Why It's Tightening, Greg Ip and Jon E. Hilsenrath, The Wall Street Journal, August 7, 2007.  “An extraordinary credit boom that created many first-time homeowners and financed a wave of corporate takeovers seems to be waning. Home buyers with poor credit are having trouble borrowing. Institutional investors from Milwaukee to Düsseldorf to Sydney are reporting losses. Banks are stuck with corporate debt that investors won't buy. Stocks are on a roller coaster, with financial powerhouses like Bear Stearns Cos. and Blackstone Group coming under intense pressure.”  (Macroeconomics)

Huge Flood of Capital to Invest Spurs World-Wide Risk Taking, Greg Ip and Mark Whitehouse, The Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2005.  “A week after Hurricane Katrina, a defaulted loan backed by aging tugboats and barges in coastal Alabama came up for sale. Mooring Financial Corp., a firm that buys troubled loans at a discount, was interested, but couldn't determine how well the boats had survived the hurricane, or even whether their cash-starved owner had kept up the insurance on them. So Mooring bid just 50 to 55 cents on the dollar, figuring that was generous for such a dicey deal."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)  Taking the Measure Of the World's Cash Hoard

 [ I ]

Inflation Primer, Pimco, July, 2003.  “Understanding inflation is crucial to investing because inflation can reduce the value of investment returns. Inflation affects all aspects of the economy, from consumer spending, business investment and employment rates, to government programs, tax policies, and interest rates."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Information Technology May Have Cured Low Service-Sector Productivity, Hal Varian, The New York Times, February 12, 2004.  “Productivity growth took a breather last quarter, slowing to 2.7 percent, after the previous quarter's torrid 9.5 percent growth. Still, by historical standards, 2.7 percent is a respectable number.  From 1948 to 1973, productivity grew at close to 3 percent annually, doubling the living standard in that period. Then came the dark age of productivity growth: from 1974 to 1994, it averaged only 1.4 percent a year. From 1995 to 2000, we had something of a productivity renaissance, with growth climbing to more than 2.5 percent a year.  When the economy started to slow down in 2000, many economists expected productivity growth to fall back under 2 percent. But contrary to these expectations, productivity has continued to grow strongly." (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ J ]

 [ K ]

 [ L ]

 [ M ]

Monetary Policy in Deflation: The Liquidity Trap in History and Practice, Athanasios Orphanides, The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, December 2003.  “The experience of the U.S. economy during the mid-1930s, when short-term nominal interest rates were continuously close to zero, is sometimes taken as evidence that monetary policy was ineffective and the economy was in a liquidity trap." Close examination of the historical policy record for the period indicates that the evidence does not support such assertions. The incomplete and erratic recovery from the Great Depression can be traced to a failure to pursue consistently expansionary policy resulting from an incorrect understanding of monetary policy in an environment of very low short-term nominal interest rates."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ N ]

 [ O ]

Of Debt, Deflation and Denial, The Economist, October 10, 2002.  “The risk of falling prices is greater than at any time since the 1930s.  For decades inflation was the bogeyman in rich countries. But now some economists reckon that deflation, or falling prices, may be a more serious threat—in America and Europe as well as Japan. That would be decidedly awkward, given the surge in borrowing by firms and households in recent years. Particularly worrying is the rise in borrowing by American households to finance purchases of houses, cars or luxury goods. Deflation would swell the real burden of these debts, forcing consumers to cut their spending.”  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

On the Origin and Evolution of the Word Inflation, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, October 15, 1997.  “For many years, the word inflation was not a statement about prices but a condition of paper money—a specific description of a monetary policy. Today, inflation is synonymous with a rise in prices, and its connection to money is often overlooked."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ P ]

 [ Q ]

 [ R ]

Recessions and Recoveries Associated with Asset-Price Movements:  What Do We Know?, Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, January 12, 2005.  “Thank you for inviting me to address the associates of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research; it is a pleasure to be here. As you know, the U.S. economy is currently continuing its recovery from the relatively mild recession in 2001, which ended the longest period of economic expansion in our nation’s recorded business-cycle history.  The 1990s will be remembered not only for this remarkably long period of prosperity but also for the excitement of the “new economy” and, less happily, for the sharp decline in equity prices that marked its end. This market correction was most dramatic in sectors of the economy associated with new technologies, the very sectors that had experienced the most pronounced run-up in equity prices.” (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Refinancing Boom Hasn't Hit Corporations Despite Lowest Rates in Decades, Companies Don't Refinance Debt, Craig Karmin, The Wall Street Journal, October 15, 2002.  “As interest rates have tumbled in recent months, American homeowners have rushed to refinance their mortgages and lower their monthly payments. Why haven't American companies done the same thing?  Given the lowest interest rates in more than four decades, corporate debt deals haven't kept pace. This year's issuance is down 19% from a year ago -- even though 10-year Treasury yields have fallen to 3.5% from around 5% since June -- and in recent weeks corporate scandals and economic weakness have pounded the corporate-bond market. Some companies even have put off previously announced deals: ClubCorp, which owns and operates country clubs and resorts, last week said it was postponing a $225 million junk-bond offering.”  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Reflections on Monetary Policy 25 Years After October 1979, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 2005.  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ S ]

Stagnation Zone, Robert J. Samuelson, The Washington Post, December 18, 2002.  “One of the year's remarkable stories was the ease with which George Bush insulated himself from a faltering economy. Perhaps Americans were preoccupied by terrorism and Iraq. Perhaps they felt he shouldn't be blamed for the flameout of the 1990s boom. Either way, Bush must fear that his good fortune can't last. Hence, he fired economic advisers Paul O'Neill and Lawrence Lindsey. The trouble is that what ails the economy can't be quickly fixed by a change in faces or even policies. Call it the New Stagnation.”  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Stock Markets and Central Bankers: The Economic Consequences of Alan Greenspan, Andrew Smithers and Stephen Wright, Smithers & Co. Ltd.  "There is a near-consensus that central bankers should focus their attention on the control of inflation, and should accordingly not pay attention to movements in stock markets.  This view is reinforced by the continuing influence of the Efficient Market Theory (EMH), that maintains the financial markets correctly price firms at all times."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ T ]

Take It From Japan: Bubbles Hurt, Martin Flacker, The New York Times, December 25, 2005.  “Fourteen years ago, Yoshihisa Nakashima looked at this sleepy suburb an hour and 20 minutes from downtown Tokyo and saw all the trappings of middle-class Japanese bliss: cherry-tree-lined roads, a cozy community where neighbors greeted one another in the morning and schools within easy walking distance for his two daughters.  So Mr. Nakashima, a Tokyo city government employee who was then 36, took out a loan for almost the entire $400,000 price of a cramped four-bedroom apartment. With property values rising at double-digit rates, he would easily earn back the loan and then some when he decided to sell." (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Tightening of Credit Availability May Suppress Capital Spending, Greg Ip,  The Wall Street Journal, February 26, 2002.  "While resilient consumers appear to be pulling the economy out of recession, new strains in the financial markets could delay the day when businesses join in.  Many small- and medium-sized firms complain that banks have tightened the screws on credit availability, and in the capital markets, Enron Corp.'s collapse and accounting worries have put a floor under borrowing costs for less-than-top-quality companies. These trends could damp companies' efforts to revive capital spending."   (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Till Debt Us Do Part, The Economist, October 10, 2002.  “The deadly cocktail of high borrowing and falling prices.  “Inflation rescues firms from the errors of optimism and stupidity.” John Kenneth Galbraith's words apply equally to households. Over the past three decades over-indebted companies and individuals have often been bailed out by inflation, which has eroded the real burden of their debt. In the late 1990s, though, optimism and stupidity reached new heights. In America and Europe private-sector debts rose more sharply than ever before in relation to GDP. Too much of this borrowing assumed unrealistic growth in future profits, share prices or incomes. But for the first time in decades, inflation can no longer rescue bosses and consumers from their folly.”  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ U ]

Understanding Open Market Operations, M. A. Akhtar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1997.  “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is responsible for day-to-day implementation of the nation’s monetary policy.  It is primarily through open market operations—purchases or sales of U.S. Government securities in the open market in order to add or drain reserves from the banking system—that the Federal Reserve influences money and financial market conditions that, in turn, affect output, jobs and prices."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Understanding the Consumer Price Index: Answers to Some Question, U.S. Department of Labor, August 2004.

U. S. Monetary Policy And Financial Markets, Ann-Marie Meulendyke, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1998.  “Understanding how monetary policy is formed and implemented is of considerable importance to economists, market participants, students and, indeed, the general public. This edition of U.S. Monetary Policy and Financial Markets seeks to advance that understanding by providing a detailed look at Federal Reserve policy procedures. The book benefits from the extensive knowledge and experience of author Ann-Marie Meulendyke, a recently retired officer who worked nearly twenty-six years in the open market and research areas of the Bank. Ms. Meulendyke prepared her first version of this book in 1989 and has now made significant revisions."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ V ]

 [ W ]

Warning: Credit Crunch, Robert Lenzner and Matthew Swibel, Forbes, August 1, 2002.  "Accounting regulators want $1 trillion or more of hidden corporate debt moved into plain view. The reform could pull the rug from under the credit-driven economy."   (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Wary Banks Link Loans To Fickle Capital Markets, Greg Ip, The Wall Street Journal, September 23, 2002.  "When numerous companies suddenly found investors unwilling to buy their debt this year, amid a rocky economy and accounting scandals, many turned to their lenders of last resort, their banks. They discovered banking has changed a lot. And some discovered that loans cost them a good deal more."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

When the Bills Come Due, Then What?, Kelly K. Spors, The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2005.  “Thanks to rock-bottom interest rates and easy ways to borrow, consumers have been on an all-out spending spree for several years. Now, though, there are signs that the bills may be piling up too high.  The portion of Americans' disposable income devoted to paying off debt hit a record high recently, even though interest rates have stayed at record lows. That could put a financial squeeze on many households if and when long-term interest rates finally start to go up." (Macroeconomics | Market History) Seminar

Why the GDP Shows No Bust, But GDR Does, Richard C. B. Johnsson, University of Uppsala, Sweden, 2002.  "The nominal GDP is supposed to measure all expenditure and income in the economy, but why isn’t the current bust reflected in GDP as a sharp drop in spending?  Doesn’t this in fact contradict the Austrian Business Cycle theory? The solution to this apparent contradiction lies in realizing that GDP actually misses to account for the larger share of all spending that takes place in the economy. In explaining this, "Austrian" economist George Reisman also provides an alternative measure, Gross Domestic Revenue (GDR). By calculating the GDR for 1987 through 2001 in this paper, I show that nominal expenditure fits the predictions of the Austrian Business Cycle theory extremely well. Among other things, GDR reveals vast drop in new business expenditure between 2000 and 2001." (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Why The Markets Can’t Fix Themselves, George Soros, The New Republic Magazine, August 25, 2002.  "The whole country is up in arms about corporate abuse and financial wrongdoing. Our outrage is coupled with amazement: How could it have happened? Yet we shouldn't be amazed. The excesses of the 1990s boom and the clamor for reform that has accompanied the current bust are in fact a recurring feature of financial markets. What is truly amazing is that after so many boom/bust cycles we still do not properly understand how financial markets operate."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

Will the Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon?  The Risk of a Hard Landing in 2005-2006, Nouriel Roubini and Brad Setser, Stern School of Business, New York University, NBER and CEPR and Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford University, February, 2005.  “The defining feature of the global economy right now is the $660 billion US current account deficit. The world’s largest economy – and the world’s preeminent military and geo-strategic power – is also the world’s largest debtor. The current account surpluses of most other regions of the world are the mirror image of the US deficit. The US absorbs at least 80% of the savings that the rest of the world does not invest at home. Barring an economic slump in the US or a major fall in the dollar, the US current account deficit looks set to expand significantly in 2005 and 2006.” (Macroeconomics | Market History)

World's Assets Hit Record Value Of $140 Trillion, JoAnna Slater, The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2006.  “The world's financial system is overflowing with stocks, bonds and other financial assets -- $140 trillion worth, to be precise.  The figure was released in a study by McKinsey & Co. that maps financial assets around the globe and seeks to track the flows of these assets as they move from one region to another, putting hard numbers on the oceans of capital washing up around the globe.”  (Macroeconomics)

 [ X ]

 [ Y ]

Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions, Arturo Estrella and Frederic S. Mishkin, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Volume 2 | Number 7), June 1996.  “The yield curve—specifically, the spread between the interest rates on the ten-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill—is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.”  (Market History)

Yield Curve Primer, Pimco, July, 2003.  “The yield curve, a graph that depicts the relationship between bond yields and maturities, is an important tool in fixed-income investing. Investors use the yield curve as a reference point for forecasting interest rates, pricing bonds and creating strategies for boosting total returns. The yield curve has also become a reliable leading indicator of economic activity."  (Macroeconomics | Market History)

 [ Z ]