[  This is a personal non-profit online research library and is solely used by Scott Bryan Hill.  Some of the links on this page lead to outside resources and the presence of these links should not be taken as an endorsement.  ]

Institute of Psychology and Markets:  IPM was founded to study the impact of psychology on investor decision making. During this century, our understanding of markets is moving beyond the perception that financial market participants are perfectly rational. The Institute is founded on the belief that new research will explore important dynamic processes previously ignored by traditional finance.

Institutional Investor Journals: We are a series of quarterly publications offering original, practical and in-depth research in global investment and finance. Institutional Investor, Inc.'s Journals (II Journals) are written by leading practitioners and academics - and read by finance industry professionals.

Robert J. Shiller, Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics, Yale University.  Cowles Foundation: Yale University: The Cowles Foundation for Research at Yale University, established as an activity of the Department of Economics in 1955, has as its purpose the conduct and encouragement of research in economics, finance, commerce, industry, and technology, including problems of the organization of these activities. The Cowles Foundation seeks to foster the development of logical, mathematical, statistical methods of analysis for application in economics and related social sciences. The Professional research staff are, as a rule, faculty members with appointments and teaching responsibilities in the Department of Economics and other departments.

A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z

( Symbol Guide )

 [ A ]

 [ B ]

Behavioral Finance: Past Battles and Future Engagements, Meir Statman, Association for Investment Management and Research, 1999.  "Market efficiency is at the center of the battle of standard finance versus behavioral finance versus investment professionals.  But the battle is not joined because the term "market efficiency" has two meanings."  (Behavior Finance | Efficient Market)  Behavior Financeeminar Information

Bubble, Rubble, Finance in Trouble?, Andrew W. Lo, Third Annual Institute on Psychology and Financial Markets Conference, Draft: November 27, 2001.  "Although critics of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis argue that markets are driven by fear and greed, not fundamentals, recent research in the cognitive neurosciences suggest that these two perspectives are opposite sides of the same coin.  I propose a new paradigm for financial economics that focuses more on the evolutionary biology and ecology of markets rather than the more traditional physicists' view."  (Behavior Finance | Macroeconomics)

Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion, Robert J. Shiller, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper (Yale University), May 2001.  "Research in psychology and behavior finance is surveyed for evidence to what extent experts such as professional investment managers or endowment trustees may behave in such a way as to help perpetuate speculative bubbles in financial markets."  (Behavior Finance | Equity Premiums and Valuations | Standards and Poor's 500 Index (Stock Market Returns))

 [ C ]

Cultural Divide Plagues NASA: Gap Persists Between Engineers, Managers, Shankar Vedantam, The Washington Post, February 10, 2003.  "After the space shuttle Challenger exploded in 1986, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Richard P. Feynman asked NASA officials what risk of failure each mission carried. NASA engineers said about 1 in every 100 flights was likely to experience a catastrophe. NASA managers put the risk closer to 1 in 100,000." (Behavioral Studies | Head-in-Sand)

 [ D ]

Dalbar:  Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior 2008: The Measurement of Success", Dalbar, 2009.  Seminar Information

Dalbar:  Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior 2008: What Investors Really Do ... And How to Counteract It", Dalbar, 2008.  Seminar Information

Dalbar - Market Chasing Mutual Fund Investors Earn Less than Inflation –Dalbar Study Shows, Dalbar Inc., Boston, MA, July 15, 2003.  Seminar Information

Dalbar Study Shows Market Timers Lose Their Money, Dalbar Inc., Boston, MA, April 1, 2004.  Seminar Information

Dalbar - More Proof that Market Timing Doesn't Work for the Majority of Investors, Dalbar Inc., Boston, MA, June 21, 2001.  Seminar Information

 [ E ]

 [ F ]

 [ G ]

 [ H ]

Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System, Robert J. Shiller, Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1997.  "Recent literature in empirical finance is surveyed in its relation to underlying behavioral principles, principles which come primarily from psychology, sociology and anthropology.  (Behavior Finance (Anchoring, Cognitive Dissonance, Overconfidence, Over and Under Reaction Prospect Theory))

 [ I ]

I'll See It When I Believe It – A Simple Model of Cognitive Consistency, Leeat Yariv, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper, February 2002.  “Psychological experiments demonstrate that people exhibit a taste for consistency.  Individuals are inclined to interpret new evidence in ways that confirm their pre-existing beliefs.  They also tend to change their beliefs to enhance the desirability of their past actions.”  (Behavior Finance (Psychological))

 [ J ]

 [ K ]

 [ L ]

 [ M ]

Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavior Finance, Eugene F. Fama, University of Chicago, June 1997.  “Market Efficiency survives the challenge from the literature on long-term anomalies.  Consistent with market efficiency that the anomalies are chance results, apparent over-reaction to information is about as under-reaction, and post-event continuation of pre-event abnormal returns is about as frequent as post-event reversals.”   (Behavior Finance)

 [ N ]

Nature of Man (The), Michael C. Jensen, Harvard Business School, 2002.  "Understanding human behavior is fundamental to understanding how organizations function, whether they are profit-making firms, non-profit enterprises, or government agencies. Much disagreement among managers, scientists, policy makers, and citizens arises from substantial differences in the way we think about human nature--about their strengths, frailties, intelligence, ignorance, honesty, selfishness, and generosity. In this paper we discuss five alternative models of human behavior that are commonly used (though usually implicitly). They are the Resourceful, Evaluative, Maximizing Model (REMM), Economic (or Money Maximizing) Model, Psychological (or Hierarchy of Needs) Model, Sociological (or Social Victim) Model, and the Political (or Perfect Agent) Model. We argue that REMM best describes the systematically rational part of human behavior. It serves as the foundation for the agency model of financial, organizational, and governance structure of firms." (Behavior Finance)

 [ O ]

 [ P ]

 [ Q ]

 [ R ]

 [ S ]

Stock Returns, Aggregate Earnings Surprises, and Behavioral Finance, S.P. Kothari, MIT, Sloan School of Management, Jonathan W. Lewellen, MIT, Sloan School of Management; NBER, Jerold B. Warner, Simon School, University of Rochester, February, 2003.  “We study the stock market reaction to aggregate earnings news. Previous research shows that, for individual firms, stock prices react positively to earnings news but require several quarters to fully reflect the information in earnings. We find that the relation between returns and earnings is substantially different in aggregate data. First, returns are unrelated to past earnings, suggesting that prices neither underreact nor overreact to aggregate earnings news.  Second, aggregate returns are negatively correlated with concurrent earnings; over the last 30 years, stock prices increased 6.5% in quarters with negative earnings growth and only 1.9% otherwise. This finding suggests that earnings and discount rates move together over time, and  provides new evidence that discount-rate shocks explain a significant fraction of aggregate stock returns.” (Behavior Finance)

 [ T ]

 [ U ]

 [ V ]

Value Investing and Behavior Finance, Christopher H. Browne, Tweedy, Browne Company, Inc., Graham and Dodd Value Investing 2000. November 15 2000.  "My partners and I at Tweedy Browne have in the past been skeptical of academic studies relating to the field of investment management primarily because such studies usually resulted in the birth of financial paradigms which we believe have no relevance to either what we do or to the real world."  (Behavior Finance | Money Management Research Report)

Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average, Terrence Odean, University of California, Davis, December 1998.  “People are overconfident.  Overconfidence affects financial markets.  How depends on who in the market is overconfident and on how information is distributed.  This paper examines markets in which price-taking traders, a strategic-trading insider, and risk-averse market makers are overconfident.”  (Behavior Finance)

 [ W ]

What I Know About How You Invest, Terry Odean: UC Berkeley, Legg Mason Funds Management Investment Conference, 2003.  (Behavior Finance) Seminar Information

What Organizations Don’t Want to Know Can Hurt, Karen W. Arenson, The New York Times, August 22, 2006.  “Call in Miss Marple, perhaps, or Sherlock Holmes.  Maybe they could solve the mystery of how some of the College Board’s SAT exams became wet last October, resulting in mistaken scores on more than 5,000 tests.  The College Board’s president, Gaston Caperton, a former insurance executive and governor of West Virginia, said that finding the specific cause “did not really matter.” What was important, he said, was to ensure that improved controls caught future problems.  But is that really enough? Should the College Board want to know whether someone merely spilled coffee on the answer sheets or whether they were exposed to rain? Was there negligence or a breakdown in security? The answer could help prevent similar incidents in the future.”  (Behavior Finance)

 [ X ]

 [ Y ]

 [ Z ]