For Scott Bryan Hill's Personal Use Only!

Not Advertisement!

Mr. Scott Bryan Hill

513-891-0778 (work | mobile)

scott.hill@fuse.net

Office Hours: Call or E-mail Anytime!

For Scott Bryan Hill's Personal Use Only!

The world of finance can be complicated and quite intimidating at times. We believe investments, as a practice is inherently simple, once you understand some of the major concepts and the lingo associated with them.

While you contemplate or plan your investments, please understand that investing is not a get-rich-quick phenomenon. It involves meticulous planning and control over your personal financial practices with a deepened sense of discipline and common sense. Every investment made will have its risks and rewards. These two factors will always go hand in hand. Taking control of your personal finances will take work, and, yes, there will be a learning curve. But the rewards will far outweigh the required effort.

Class #1

Stock Market Simulator

Investopedia Stock Simulator:  Our stock market game is like a fantasy sports pool for investing - it simulates the experience of trading in the stock market. Our system connects to a real-life data feed, allowing you to invest just like you would with an online trading account at any discount broker, but with $100,000 of virtual cash, you can trade without fear of losing real money!

Handout:  Investopedia Stock Basics Tutorial (Not Included in Binder)

Handout:  Investopedia Training Program (Not Included in Binder)

Handout:  How to Place a Stock Order (Not Included in Binder)

Handout:  You Say You Want to Invest (Not Included in Binder)

Sign Up - LOG IN

Presentation #1

Financial Planning in America

    Are You on the Right Path?

             The History of Inflation:  Set Your Cost-of-Living-Adjustments (Pre- and Post- Retirement)

             Retirement Issues

                  Social Security Issues

                  Defined Benefit Plans (Pensions Plans) & the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

                       Private Pensions (Defined Benefits)

                       State & Local Government Pensions

                       Defined Contribution Plans (IRAs, 403(b)s, 401(k)s and Others)

             Education-College Planning Issues

             Healthcare (Medicare) Issues

             Nursing Home Planning Issues

             Estate and Trust Planning Issues

    Financial Planning Pitfalls

    Financial Planning Is Not Investment Planning

    “Building a Moat around Your Family’s Financial Castle!”

Articles and Research Reports for Today's Class

Saturday Night Live - Today's Financial World (Media)

The Intelligent Investor (PDF)

How to Make Big Money (Gary Shilling) (Not Included in Binder)

I Always Believed I Could Make Money With Money (Leon Levy) (Not Included in Binder)

Bill Miller: What's Luck Got To Do With It (Bill Miller) | Legg Mason Value Trust | Humbler, After a Streak of Magic (Not Included in Binder)

Class #2

Presentation #2

Part I:  Capital Markets and Valuation Metric Overview

    The History of the Capital Markets: Back to the Basics

             Stocks, Bonds, Cash and Real Assets (Commodities)

    What Returns Will Stocks, Bonds, Cash and Real Assets Generate in Our Future?  Why?

             The Bull & Bear Case:  Why It's Smart to Keep One Foot in Each Camp!

              International Investing

    Security Analysis & Intrinsic Value (Graham and Dodd)

    Appreciating the Distinction between Risk and Uncertainty

    Behavior Finance:  90% Efficient Markets (Efficient Markets Hypothesis) with a Dash of Irrational Mobs (Financial Instability Hypothesis)

    Secular Bull Markets: We Are All Geniuses

    Secular Bear Markets:  The Destruction of Misallocated Wealth

    Understanding Investment Inertia and Powerful Momentum

    Managing Money in a Dynamic Economy

    History of the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Presentation #2

Part II:  "Where are the Customer's Yachts?"

    The Use of Common Sense and Math (Probability and Statistical Analysis) to Understand Money Management

    Why the Great Majority of Investment Companies Greatly Under-Perform their Respective Indices in the Long-Run

    What Underperformance Does to Your Financial Dream?

             Do You Know Your One, Three, Five or Ten Year Investment Returns?

             Do You Know Your "True" Costs and Fees?

    A Small Fib - "Hold On!  You're a Long-Term Investor!"  Why?

    Wall Street Fees and Costs:  Where are the Customer's Yachts?

    Financial Firms and Marketing Strategies:  Where Did All those Investment Funds Go?  (Survivorship Bias)

    Hedge Funds and the “New” Economy – Derivatives, CDOs, CLOs, CDS and other "Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction"

    The Times They Are A-Changing!

Articles and Research Reports for Today's Class

Security Analysis (Introduction) (Benjamin Graham & David Dodd)

Portfolio Selection (Harry Markowitz) (Not Included in Binder)

Vitaliy Katsenelson

Active Value Investing in Range-Bound, Vitaliy N. Katsenelson Contrarian Edge (Website)

Secular Stock Markets Explained (1900 to 2009) (Crestmont Research)

Class #3

Presentation #3

The Financial Mines

    Financial Annual Reports otherwise known as Steven Spielberg Scripts

    Financial Accounting Standards (We Beat by a Penny!)

             Cash Flow, Mergers and Acquisitions (Cookie Jar), Pension Assumptions, Options, Special Purpose Entities (Synthetic Leasing) & Revenue Recognition

             Structure Finance and the Credit Markets:  Car Loans, Credit Cards, Equipment Leasing, Home Mortgages, Student Loans & David Bowie Loans

    Corporate Governance Issues

    Pensions & The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC)

             Pulling Back the “Assumption” Curtain

    Investment Bankers & Wall Street Analysts:  Where are the Customer's Yachts?

    Financial Firms and their "Advisors”:  Where are the Customer's Yachts?

    The CNBC "Smart" Guys:  Where are the Customer's Yachts?

    Stock Options and Executive Compensation Issues:  Where are the Shareholders Yachts?

    "Who Is Behind the Eight-Ball?"

Articles and Research Reports for Today's Class

How to Research Individual Stocks and Mutual Funds (In Class Activity)

Fundamental Analysis (In Class Activity)

Ruined by 401(K) Predators (Business Week)

Active Vs. Passive

Pseudo-Science Hurting Markets (Nassim Taleb)

Some Mutual Fund Numbers Look Great, but for Whom? (New York Times)

Think You Can Beat the Market? A Study Says 1 in 5 Can (The New York Times)

Prescient Are Few (New York Times)

Actively Managed Funds: A Loser's Game (BusinessWeek)

Gary Gensler Sends Message Wall Street Wants Kept Quiet (The Wall Street Journal)

Mutual Fund Costs

The Hidden Costs of Mutual Funds (The Wall Street Journal)

Jeremy Grantham: ‘We Add Nothing But Costs’ (Financial Times)

That Nagging Question of Mutual Fund Fees (The New York Times)

The Folly of Mutual Funds (Barron's)

The Best Investment Money Can Buy:  Mutual-Fund Stocks (MarketWatch)

'100% Protected' Isn't as Safe as It Sounds (The New York Times)

Fees on 401(k)s Rock Boomers Facing Flawed Disclosure (Darrell Preston and Gary Matsumoto)

The United States Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) Mutual Fund Cost Calculator: The Mutual Fund Cost Calculator enables investors to easily estimate and compare the costs of owning mutual funds.  The Cost Calculator is great for understanding costs, but costs aren't the only thing that should be considered when investing in a mutual fund. Go directly to the SEC Calculator.

Frequently Asked Questions About Mutual Fund Fees  (Not Included in Binder)

Investment Company Institute (Website)

John Bogle

Bogle Financial Markets Research Center

Class #4

Presentation #4

Part I:  "Our Brave New World"

    Agricultural-Base a Industrial-Base a Service-Base a Today's Platform-Company World (Financial Base)

             The Dynamic Process of Globalization:  A Realistic and Optimistic View of Today's "Brave New World”

             The Dynamic Process of Globalization:  Three Great Flows - Capital, Labor and Natural Resources

    The Platform Company World:  Is this Time Different?

    Increase Money Supply + Limited Real Assets (Commodities) + Increase Demand = A Potential New Bull Market in Commodities

    The Global Marketplace and the World Central Bankers

Presentation #4

Part II:  A Macroeconomic View of the World

    Economic Data

             Inflation in Needs versus Deflation in Wants

                   Hedonics, Substitution and the Understated Consumer Price Index (CPI)

             Understanding the United States Flow of Funds Report and Economic Analysis: 

                   America's Balance Sheet (Assets and Liabilities)

                   America's Savings (Investment) Issues

                   Consumer and Capital Debt (Mortgages to Unsecured Debt)

                        Outstanding versus Debt Service

                   Housing and Mortgage Issues

                   Current Accounts:  Who Owns Our Treasuries (Foreign Holdings of United States Treasuries)?

                   Money Supply and the Waterfall Flow of Funds (Money)

                   Asset Bubbles, Moral Hazard and the Federal Reserve

    A History on Currency Debasements or the Shaving of the Silver

    Are We Back to a Deflationary or Inflationary Boom?  What about a little 1970’s Stagflation Today!

    Why Central Banks are the Elephant in the Room

    Financial Bubbles are Normal with a Paper (Fiat) Currency

             Historical Bubbles and a Possible List of Future Bubbles

             The Minsky Moment (Meltdown): Hedge, Speculative and Ponzi Finance

    An American Empire (Pre or Post)

Articles and Research Reports for Today's Class

Financial Calculators (Outside Web)

Flaw of Averages (Savage)

Destitute At 80 Retiring In Secular Cycles  (Crestmont Research)

Pensions (Defined Benefit Plans)

Gilt-Edge Pensions (Forbes)

Trillion-Dollar Pension Crisis Looms Large Over America (Paul Ingrassia and Imogen Rose-Smith)

Annuities

Treat ‘em Like Blind 12- Year Olds (CBS MarketWatch)

David Swensen

Yale Manager Blasts Industry (David Swensen)

Keep It Simple, Says Yale’s Top Investor (David Swensen)

Yale's Money Guru Shares Wisdom with Masses  (David Swensen)

David Swensen's Guide to Sleeping Soundly  ((David Swensen)

Yale's Investor Keeps Playbook  (David Swensen) (Not Included in Binder)

For Yale’s Money Man, a Higher Calling (David Swensen) (Not Included in Binder)

Simple Math to See if You Have An Age-Appropriate Next Egg (WSJ | Clements)  (Not Included in Binder)

Does Asset Allocation Policy Explain 40%, 90%, or 100% of Performance? (Ibbottson Associates) (Not Included in Binder)

Role of Asset Allocation in Portfolio Management (Ibbotson Associates) (Not Included in Binder)

Behavior Finance

Using Behavioral Finance to Better Understand the Psychology of Investors (Institutional Investors)

Cognitive Biases (Eric Fernandez)

What I Know About How You Invest  (Terry Odean)

Robert Shiller

Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System (Robert J. Shiller)  (Not Included in Binder) 

Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion (Robert J. Shiller)  (Not Included in Binder) 

Valuations Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook (Robert J. Shiller)  (Not Included in Binder) 

Valuations Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update (Robert J. Shiller)  (Not Included in Binder) 

Equity Premium  (Eugene F. Fama | Kenneth R. French)  (Not Included in Binder) 

Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavior Finance (Eugene F. Fama)  (Not Included in Binder) 

Class #5

Presentation #6 Part I

Foundation Indexing:  A Quantitative Money Management Strategy

You should look at your net-worth like a medieval castle and your goals are to:

1)  Create a Defensive Moat Constantly Expanding Outward, Protecting you from the Increasing Cost of Living (Inflation) while

2)  Investing in Offensive Opportunities that will Deliver Sustainable Future Growth

Articles and Research Reports for Today's Class

Nassim Taleb

On the Plumage of Birds (Nassim Taleb)

Blowing Up (Nassim Taleb)

How the Finance Gurus Get Risk All Wrong (Nassim Taleb)

Mastering Uncertainty (Nassim Taleb)

Risks of Severe Infrequent Events (Nassim Taleb)

You Can't Predict Who Will Change the World (Nassim Taleb)

Birth of Stochastic Science (Nassim Taleb)

Black Swans and the Domains of Statistics (Nassim Taleb) (Not Included in Binder)

Flight of the Black Swan (Nassim Taleb) (Not Included in Binder)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Nassim Taleb) (Not Included in Binder)

October Pain Was 'Black Swan' Gain (Nassim Taleb) (Not Included in Binder)

Perfect Storm: Beautiful & True Lies In Risk Management (Satyajit Das)  (Not Included in Binder)

U.S. Investors Face An Age of Murky Pricing (WSJ)

How We Got Here (Andy Kessler, Escape Velocity Press, 2004.)  (Not Included in Binder)  Andy Kessler's Website:  Andy Kessler

Brave New World Or Bust  (GaveKal vs. Faber)  (Not Included in Binder)

Part 1 - Why We Remain Bullish (GaveKal)  (Not Included in Binder)

Part II: So What Should We Worry About? (GaveKal) (Not Included in Binder)

Tomorrow's Gold (Marc Faber) (Not Included in Binder)

Next Big Thing (Marc Faber) (Not Included in Binder)

The Long Tail (Chris Anderson)

Class #6

Presentation #6 Part II

Foundation Indexing:  A Quantitative Money Management Strategy

You should look at your net-worth like a medieval castle and your goals are to:

1)  Create a Defensive Moat Constantly Expanding Outward, Protecting you from the Increasing Cost of Living (Inflation) while

2)  Investing in Offensive Opportunities that will Deliver Sustainable Future Growth

Presentation #7

Financial Planning in America - Your Family, Incorporated

    A Follow Up:  Are You on the Right Path?

             Retirement Planning

             Tax Planning

             Life Insurance

             Education Planning

             Healthcare (Medicare) Planning

             Nursing Home Planning

             Estate and Trust Planning

    “Building a Moat around Your Family’s Financial Castle!”

Articles and Research Reports for Today's Class

Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast, James Montier (Text of Speech 2009)

David Einhorn (Greenlight Capital)

Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long Short Story (Website)

The End of the Financial World as We Know It, Michael Lewis and David Einhorn, The New York Times, January 4, 2009.

David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital, Liquor before Beer… In the Clear, October 19, 2009.

David Einhorn's "Accounting Ingenuity", May 21, 2008.

David Einhorn's "Private Profits and Socialized Risk" April 8, 2008.  Grant's Spring Investment Conference

David Einhorn's Prepared Remarks, October 19, 2007.  17th Annual Graham & Dodd Breakfast

James Montier

The Trinity of Risk, James Montier, Societe Generale, January 27, 2009. (Not Included in Binder) 

Process Not Outcome, James Montier, Societe Generale, September 1, 2008. (Not Included in Binder) 

I'm Lying When I Say Trust Me!, James Montier, Societe Generale, March 11, 2008. (Not Included in Binder) 

Beware of Action Man, James Montier, Societe Generale, January 7, 2008. (Not Included in Binder) 

Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast, James Montier (Text of Speech 2009)

Hedge Funds

Private Investment Companies (Hedge Funds) (Coalition of Private Investment Companies | Not Included in Binder)

Short Selling

Not Included in Binder

Financial Detectives:  A Primer About Short Selling (Coalition of Private Investment Companies)

Kirk Wright’s Razzle-Dazzle Play (Bloomberg Markets)

Retirees Clam Broker Gave Bad Advice (Associated Press)

From the Mean Streets to Wall Street Feature Interview with Chris Gardner & Chris Gardner’s Experiences

Inflation | Deflation

On the Origin and Evolution of the Word Inflation (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

Understanding the Consumer Price Index: Answers to Some Question (U.S. Department of Labor)   (Not Included in Binder)

Addressing Misconceptions about the Consumer Price Index (Monthly Labor Review, August 2008) (Not Included in Binder)

The Globalization of Labor (International Monetary Fund)  (Not Included in Binder)

Coinflation

Alternative Investing

Foundation Indexing - Example Portfolio (Not Included in Binder)

Class #7

The End of the Term!

Final Portfolio Evaluations (Stock Market Simulator)

Final Questions, Surveys & Certifications

Articles and Research Reports for Today's Class

Numbers Racket:  Why the Economy is Worse Than We Know (Harpers Magazine)

The End (Portfolio)

Betting on the Blind Side (Vanity Fair)

Barron's The World's Most - and Least - Respected Companies (2007) (Not Included in Binder)

Top 100 Global Companies by RD (Not Included in Binder)

Top 100 Retailers  (Not Included in Binder)

Web Sites

Berkshire Hathaway:  Official Homepage - For Full Annual Report - Click Here

Bogle Center: The Bogle Financial Markets Research Center, established on January 1, 2000, Mr. Bogle has been studying, writing, and speaking about issues related to the financial markets and mutual funds.

Andy Kessler:  Andy Kessler is a former hedge fund manager who now writes on investment trends in technology and communications.

Disclaimer and Fair-Use Notice Information for Latrobe Financial Management